Hello everyone. So... two weeks without a word, but this is a good sign, I guess it means I don't have much to complain about lately. Things at home have been not picture perfect, but... they've been ok (he's still cooking and cleaning!). My mood is a bit strange though, for these past weeks I've been noticing some changes regarding my feelings for Josh, mostly because I'm disappointed and tired of waiting for the great life he promised me a year ago.
Josh complains this was one of the worst years he's had since he started playing poker. According to his stats, he should be winning like $3500 more than he did, because of the so called "suck outs". I wonder if this is normal... I mean, I know Poker can be a game of patience and losing streaks can last a long time, but.. a whole year? I don't know. I'm not saying I don't believe him, but I just don't know if this is normal. He complains that he's been losing with the best hand over and over on Poker Stars, and when he wins it's only enough to compensate for what he's already lost. So basically he isn't losing, but also not making any money, which makes life complicated for us.
Meanwhile, he started reading "Poker Winners Are Different" and we went through the first chapter together, the one with some sort of quizz to help the reader compare himself to a typical "Winner". I was surprised to see he's thinking straight, he answered the questions honestly and when we compared the results with what a winner would do, he would have done the same on every question, except the first. If I recall it correctly, on the first question they asked how many callers he'd want if he went all in with pocket aces. He answered 1 and the book said that, considering long term results, the best would be always to have as many callers as possible with that hand, so 9 callers. That's chinese to me.
I was thinking about posting his Holdem Manager stats here, without his name, so you could get a better idea of the type of player he is and give me your opinion, but... that means I have to use his computer when he's not home. So for now I'll ask: what was the longest you've been without winning (I mean without covering your losses and winning on top of them)?
And... I'll keep waiting for Lady Luck to find her way back to our house, she must have gotten lost or caught up somewhere.
Thank you for reading.
xoxo
Andrea
Sure, post some stats and I can try to give my impression. Some questions first, what kind of games does he play mostly? Cash, large tournys, SNGs, full ring (9 or 10) players, 6-man, heads up? Does he multi-table and how many at a time? How many hours has he worked this year?
ReplyDeleteHi Pokerdogg, I'll try to answer to the best of my knowledge... he plays multi-table on two screens, which means about 10 tables at the same time (on average). He mostly plays SNGs, but I think he also plays Turbos, Heads up and Ring. He usually doesn't play large tourneys unless he wins the step (?).
DeleteOk, so is he playing mostly single table SNGs, 9 handed, normal speed? Just a few terminologies to help the discussion.
DeleteTurbo - describes the speed in which the blinds go up in a tounament. At Pokerstars, the normal speed SNG has 10 minutes blind levels, whereas Turbo has 5 minutes blind
SNGs - a tournament that starts whenever a set number of players join. There are single table SNGs, and multi-table SNGs. The largest (in terms of players) SNGs on Pokerstars have 180 players.
MTT - multi-table tournaments. These have set start time. The number of players can range from dozens, to tens of thousands. When I said large tournaments earlier, I was referring to MTTs, not the size of buyins.
Step tournaments - a special kind of SNGs. There are different step levels. When you win a step SNG, the prize is a tournament ticket to the next step level (where the buyin is worth around 3x the current step. Some step levels also have spots that pay a ticket to the same step, or one step below. Sort of like a stair case where you can go up one step, stay at the same step, go down one step, or fall off the stairs.
Regarding longest losing streak, that is an interesting question to answer. Autual length of time is less meaningful than number of hands, since you can multi-table online. Length of losing streak is influenced by ones win rate, style, type of games, and of course luck.
ReplyDeleteIf Josh is negative on the year, and he is multi-tabling cash games in NLHE, putting in 40 hours a week, then something other than luck is probably at work here.
What is his overall win rate (in BB/100) for lifetime, and for this year? How many hands has he played for lifetime and for the year?
I don't know how to answer those questions, I'd have to check his computer... but he plays an average of 40 hours a week, yes.
DeleteIf he is mainly playing SNGs, then the win rate would be expressed differently. BB/100 is used to measure cash games winrate. For tournaments (including SNGs), the basic measurements are ROI (return on investment) and ITM% (in the money %).
DeleteROI - how much money you get back in terms of buyins. Lets say you spent $1000 total buyins for a bunch of SNGs. You end up with $1100 after playing them. Your ROI is 10%
ITM - the percentage of times you cash in a tournament. Along with the ROI number, tells you a bit about the the type of player he is.
If he is on average playing 10 tables, single table 9 handed SNGs, with a mix of normal and turbo speed, he should be getting 10-20 SNGs per hour. Say at 30 hours per week, 40 weeks so far in the year, he should have played between 12,000 to 24,000 SNGs. This should be more than sufficient to show his long term win rate.
You can run below normal for a long time. I once had a winning streak of nearly three months were I didn't have a losing day and I have also had a streak of short handed limit where I played 70K hands of break even poker. I wouldn't be too concerned if he has a decent overall winning performance over a year's time particularly when he is getting in 40 hours a week, something that I rarely did when playing online.
ReplyDeleteIf Josh is playing 10 tables, he wil have 70000+ hands per month. At this point in the year, he should be approaching 700,000 hands. If he is just breaking even, or losing, it is probably not just due to variance. Andrea can correct me if I read it wrong, but I thought she said Josh is basically breaking even for the year.
DeleteI just spoke to Josh and he told me he's playing 83k hands a month. Also I've been doing some math and apparently he doesn't play 40 hours a week, but I'd say an average of 30 hours a week. Yes, he's breaking even for the year, so far at least...
DeleteAndrea, one more question. How is Josh doing in his question to achieve the Super Nova level? He should be earning some VIP cash bonus rewards along the way as he accumulates. Is this included in calculating his winnings, or is it set apart?
ReplyDeleteI will try to talk to Josh about all of this without sounding too suspicious and answer you when I can. The best way for you to evaluate him as a player would be to see his stats... I'll see what I can do about that. Thanks!!!
DeleteYes, I am sure he is wondering where all the questions are comimg from already. Take your time, whenever you have the info, I am in no hurry. Just to set proper expectation, I can only make fairly general assessments looking at the stats. I think you want to know overall how Josh is doing, we can do that by looking his stats. But I won't be able to tell in detail where his strength/weakness, how to improve, etc, just by looking at a few stats. If you have any other things you are wondering about, feel free to ask. Take care.
ReplyDeleteSure, that will be very helpful, thank you :)
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ReplyDeleteYeah if he is knocking out that many hands a year and is breaking even with all of the additional money that he could be obtaining through his frequent player points then something is surely amiss.
ReplyDeleteThose excuses as to not getting an additional job due to cutting into his playing hours is a crock. I have played poker professionally for large parts of the last 18 years. During some of this time I finished off a doctorate while paying for all of my expenses playing poker. Most of this time was playing live poker and I regularly put in 80-100 hour weeks with my classes, writing a dissertaion and playing. It takes a very special person to make it as a card player and if he is no more successful after 6 years than he appears to be it just isn't in the cards so to speak. That said if you are content with his lifestyle then so be it, your life is yours to live as you see fit and while most of us looking outward in can see what a train wreck this appears to be it is your choice alone, best of luck.
I was impressed to read that you got your doctorate while playing and paid for it all. It's really... nerve wrecking to see Josh is unwilling to make any effort to be successful in his life other than playing Poker. It seems he doesn't believe he even has a choice or a chance at something else. I wrote a post about it, will publish it soon. Thanks for your input and congratulations on your success :)
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