Friday 18 October 2013

calling his bluff (and josh's HM stats)

Edit November 20, 2013: Josh showed me his HM is actually crazy (like, he's been playing for 6 hours and the program only shows 40 minutes), which means I can't be sure of the accuracy of the stats I posted before.

Yesterday I kept my ground and didn't go all "please don't go" on Josh. I told him he has to find an alternative to Poker, or... if he chooses to leave, I won't stop him or be upset. So yeah, I basically was calling his bluff.

We talked a bit about his stats and he even showed me Hold'em Manager. This might help answering some of your questions.. let's see.. he told me he plays games with 45 people max but usually will only go there if he wins enough on smaller games. His usual games involve 9 to 18 people (if I understood correctly) - that's all he plays now.

Regarding his attempt to reach the Super Nova level, he told me it would be impossible to achieve only with 5 thousand dollars (what I gave him last year, when he said it would be a piece of cake) because there could be major losing streaks (he mentioned one of 20K by some pro). His winnings in a year come to 5K, including rakeback, and he plays an average 30 hours a week.

He also told me about something called EV (no idea what it stands for) and how it showed he would be losing much less if he wasn't having suck bad luck for such a long time. This is his actual graph:
 



The green line are his winnings, the yellow his winnings + rake and the red what he'd be winning if he wasn't so unlucky. That's how he put it. This is a screen he sent me through Facebook, that's why it's very small.

Later I was able to get the following screens from his computer (all stats are from the entire year). You can see the photos in a larger format by CLICKING HERE (it has all the pics of this blog, so you'll find a chicken there also, haha).
 

 
 





 
 

Regarding your comments and advice... I know you keep hoping I kick him out, and I totally understand it. But as some of you already know (thank you Pokerdogg), this blog isn't entirely about getting advice (or following it blindly), but getting some personal clarity! Your advice is good, reasonable advice. But I'm not an entirely reasonable person.
 
Anyway, I am feeling very disconnected from Josh lately and this might result in some permanent change of the way I feel towards him. For now I'm just evaluating the situation... but if he were to leave me today, I wouldn't try to stop him. And this is quite different from how I was feeling a couple of months ago.

I'm now working a bit far from my house (one hour away by train), which leaves me little time for myself and very little patience for Josh's difficulties. So I'm feeling pretty saturated... but I don't know if this is how I'll feel when I get back working at my company's headquarters, near my house, in January and everything settles down. One thing is for sure, I don't feel the same way I did a few months ago.

Just... living one day at a time, always. Thank you for reading.

xoxo
Andrea

26 comments:

  1. gl with whatever happens,girl.u know how i feel. i am just beating a dead horse.

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  2. Andrea, thanks for posting the stats. I will take a look at them later today, in particular I am going to find out more about the EV calculation for tournaments. I am not familiar with how Holdem Manager (HEM) calculates that, I didn't even know it was possible to make such calculations for tournaments, Maybe it uses something like Independent Chips Model (ICM) to calculate chip equity for each tourney when a person busts out. I am a bit skeptical on how useful this measure is in a tournament.

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  3. Again, this blog is clearly a level. Well played.

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    Replies
    1. What do you mean Pete? Still thinking I'm some guy, now hoping to get an outside view on the way I play Poker? :)

      I guess I'll have to make a live feed through Skype one day so you guys can see me and clear any doubts. Kind of risky (I'd have to be alone in the house) but I'm up for it if it's what it takes.

      Delete
    2. Call her bluff, P3! As they say on 2+2, "Pics, or it didn't happen..."

      s.i.

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    3. Exactly, irish!

      This blog is just too weird and needy to be true . . . At least, I hope it's a work!

      Delete
  4. Hi Andrea, sorry I haven't had much time to look at the stats yet, ended up spending the day with my wife, and now I am playing in a tourny. I did do some reading about tourny ev. I was wondering if you can find the win/loss in terms of BB/100? Turns out that may be a better indication of how lucky/unluckly he was. Also, are all the graphs from the same period & same filters? From my quick glance, seems like some are for the year, and some are from the last few weeks. It will be great if all stats are for the whole year (to date).

    Thx

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    Replies
    1. There's absolutely NO rush Pokerdogg, don't worry. Can you explain what win/loss "in terms of BB/100" means? Sorry.

      I chose "Last Year" filter for all the graphs, but some of the tables are so long that they don't fit the screen and only show the latest results :\ (like the image called "tournaments" where there's a visible scroll down button)

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    2. Hi Andrea, looks like Josh played about 12000 SNGs this year so far, but in graph #5, it only shows 3716 total. Can you regenerate that graph, because that is only of the more useful graphs of the group.

      BB/100 - means win or loss measured in Big Blinds per 100 hands. This should be one of the stats you can look at under tournament reports. Is Josh using Holdem Manager 2? I use the original version,and I don't see graphs in my tourney section of the program, so I can't tell you steps to produce the graph or table.

      In any case, for tournaments, BB/100 won't tell you win/loss in terms of actual $, but it tells you win/loss in terms of tournament chips. When you compare the actual BB/100 to ev (expected value) BB/100, you get more direct measure of how lucky/unlucky Josh was in allin situations. Keep in mind, this measures a specific type of situation, when all the money goes in, before the final river card is dealt.

      Delete
  5. Why would anyone even bother to create such an elaborate lie? You must know some twisted people PPP... it saddens me to read I'm needy, but whatahell. Maybe you're right.

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    Replies
    1. mayb not needy but just want attention.idk.my question is how much josh expects to earn a week playing poker?or is it just to win a big tourney. also what made him think he can make a living play poker?personally ,i think it is best to try to supplement yr income with poker like a second job. i know the HORROR josh having to face reality and work a job.he is living the life . he has his sugar mama and just waiting 4 his grandma to die and cash out. sounds like a real winner.sorry 4 being blunt but that is what it looks like. i think the his threats r classic. well have a great weekend . i will. poker,american football,beer,pizza, and fantasy sports. tc

      Delete
  6. Andrea, I thought I asked about Josh's progress towards Super Nova status, and you made a response saying he is not on track to do so, and his reasoning was due to low bankroll. I found a VIP calculator on Pokerstars. You can plug in the games you play and see how many points you get. To achieve supernova status, you need to get 100,000 VPP in a year. I played with the numbers a bit, looks like if Josh stay disciplined, and play single table turbo SNGs, 10 tables at a time, he should be able to play 100 matches per day. That gives him 611 VPP per day. He only needs to play 164 days out of the year, or about 15 days/month. If the calculator is accurate, there is no reason why Josh can't do this on a $5 BR, assumming, of course, that he is at least a break even player (before VIP rewards).

    http://www.pokerstars.com/vip/calculator/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He seems aware of how much he has to play to reach that level, but is blaming his bad luck and what it's doing to his bankroll. I'll try to understand how many games he still needs to play to make it...

      Delete
  7. The title of this blog is misleading. You're not his wife, you're his girlfriend, enabler, and mother. You're giving him far too much credit by calling yourself his wife, because that insinuates decency and consideration for your feelings and not manipulating your guilt to achieve satisfactory results with blatant lies and twistings of the truth

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  8. The title of this blog is misleading. You're not his wife, you're his girlfriend, enabler, and mother. You're giving him far too much credit by calling yourself his wife, because that insinuates decency and consideration for your feelings and not manipulating your guilt to achieve satisfactory results with blatant lies and twistings of the truth

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    Replies
    1. I am a bit puzzled by your comments. You took issue with Andrea calling Josh her husband, but you called her Josh's mother. Do you think the title should be changed to "My son is a 'Professional' poker player..."?

      In some countries, like Canada, a couple is considered common law husband and wife if they lived together for a period of time (say 2 years). Perhaps that is the case where Andrea lives.

      BTW, are you a BC Lions fan?

      Delete
    2. Pokerdogg, my understanding is common law only applies if there is a biological kid involved.

      Delete
    3. I am sorry Zin, but your understanding about common law marriage is quite incorrect, at least for Canada and US, including the state of Texas where you are from.

      Here is a recent news article from CBC, talking about the most recent court ruling on common law rights and responsibilities in British Columbia.

      http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/common-law-couples-as-good-as-married-in-b-c-1.1413551

      In Canada as in the United States, the law varies between each province/state. Some juristisions reduce the amount of time required for co-habitation if a child is involved, most don't mention about childen at all as a requirement.

      In USA, only nine states (including Texas) and the district of Columbia recognizes common law marriage. A few other states allow "grandfathered" common law marriage.

      http://www.ncsl.org/research/human-services/common-law-marriage.aspx

      Specifically, in Texas, there are two ways a couple may prove they are informally married (their term for common law in Texas)

      1) They can file a Declaration of Informal Marriage with the County Clerk

      2) They must
      (a) the couple agress that they are married
      (b) the live together in Texas; and
      (c) they represent themselves to other individuals that they are married to one another

      That's it, no mention of childen, biological or otherwise
      In the state of Texas,

      Delete
    4. In my country people who live together for more than 2 years are the equivallent to being married, yes.

      Delete
    5. Unfortunately I don't think he has the decency or love/respect for Andrea to do whatever it takes to be in a position to officialize his commitment to her with anything like a ring or whatever else she wants in order to be happy.

      Delete
  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  10. Just an overall comment, not just this post. This is the life you choose so be it... you can leave this bum but you stay. I think you feel you'll be awesome repairing this pathetic guy, it won't happen... SNE, lol what a joke... he'll never get there but that doesn't matter... be it poker, slots, alcoholic, drugs... he' always be a loser and has you to fall back on.

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