Hello everyone. Just keeping the blog alive here. Things at home have been peaceful for a week (wow), Josh is spending lots of time playing the Micro Millions thing, yesterday he entered a 21 thousand people tournament and won 200 dollars, he played for 6 hours and got to the final 200 players. It was a little frustrating because I was secretly hoping he'd go further and, who knows, win the 15K first prize (that would be awesome), but... yeah.
He said he was going to change his strategy a bit and start playing MTTs (he only played Sit and Gos for the last year), from now on. This is somewhat "refreshing" to me, because I always thought he should play MTTs. Not that I know what I'm talking about, but I figure that if he can pay like 8 dollars to win 15K, he should try it from time to time, even if it's a long shot. He always said it wasn't a good idea because the game doesn't work based on "long shots", but on long term persistency and repetition, which means he might have to play dozens of MTTs to make sure he'd win something decent and he couldn't risk his bankroll like that.
Now, after seeing that he has gone far in several tournaments, he got his confidence up a little, and decided he's going to play more of it. Not sure if he plans on stopping SNG, but I don't think so and I hope not, I think he should play both to keep things balanced.
Now, regarding our relationship... What happened last time we had a huge fight was a small victory for me (not giving in, making him buy his pills and pick up the Dog License for me), but unfortunately, for boundaries to be deeply set, they must be tested, and those tests happen when we disagree, have a fight and I stand my ground (or not). So, I passed my first test. The problem is that sometimes fights don't happen often enough (ridiculous, but please understand) and this tends to make me "softer" which in consequence makes it more difficult to keep my boundaries when the next altercation arrives.
I was talking to my mom about this the other day. Her reaction was the same as many of yours: it can't be that difficult to leave someone if you're not entirely happy with the person. I showed her the book I'd just bough (Codependency for Dummies) and explained to her that I've had this problem since my teens, that I spent my whole life saying yes to men when I really wanted to say no. I didn't get into many details (she's my mom), so I didn't mention anything sexual (which happened several times), but I did admit to her that I'd accepted a guy's request to be his girlfriend (when I was like 20) only not to upset him, and then I got home and texted him saying I was sorry but I didn't want to be his girl after all. She was a bit shocked to know this, lol. I can tell you a dozen stories of situations when I said yes instead of no (with other men, not Josh), for a single reason: not to be unpleasant and create what would be an awkward situation for me.
So we talked about how this problem only happens when it comes to men, because I have no problem standing up for myself with women. And we talked a bit about my real dad and how he might have influenced me to become like this, since I was always trying to make him love me and he was very demanding and cold and always busy.
So... yeah, to answer those who accused my therapist of being a charlatan, I disagree completely. It's very simple, actually. Imagine you found out that the way you lived your entire life was wrong, unhealthy or even dangerous for you (and I've had more than one dangerous situation because of my inability to say NO, the worst being almost getting raped). Imagine you'd have to learn how to live differently. Do you think you'd be able to change a little chip in your brain and wake up a new person? No.
It takes time. It takes tests. This can last months or years, depending on the situation. I'm still coming to terms with the reality of my life: I have to change the way I lead my life. And this has to be done in small steps. First I say no to buying him pills, then I say no to having sex if I'm tired and don't feel like it, then I say no to getting his dinner on the way home just so he doesn't have to move, then I say no to doing just about anything that goes against my will. Simple... but difficult.
Hope you guys are ok.
xoxo
Andrea
Hey baby, when you say "No", do you really mean "Yes"? Lol.
ReplyDeleteTo win anything significant, you must place in the top .1% of a MTT. This will take literally thousands of MTT's.
I can explain privately how Josh lacks qualities of a real pro. If his ROI is 2% at low-level Sit-and-Go's, and he multi-tables ten $15 tourneys per hour for six hours per day, then he would average 2%*10*15*6 = $18/day = $3/hour. He lacks skills, bankroll, or opportunities to do much better.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting different results. He can switch from Sit-and-Go's to MTT's to cash games. But a mediocre talent like Josh won't win much from his poker hobby. You need to understand and accept this to make good decisions for yourself.
But he's had much higher ROI throughout the years. This was the only year in wich he earned so little money. He has an average ROI of 10% (and even 50% one year). Why do you say he's a mediocre talent?
Deleteis he making money? or can he support himself thru poker? then mediocre.but it is ok.he is just waiting 4 the grim reaper to get that beach house money or whatever. heaven forbid, getting a job. not 4 my boy ,josh.too good 4 that. just glad the Frank is doing well.
DeleteAndrea you need to sit down and watch Josh play poker for one full day. If Josh is playing the micro stakes Josh needs to play ABC poker. ABC poker is the only style of poker that wins consistently at the micros. Its a boring grind. Only premium hands win long term at the micros, bluffing does not work, mediocre hands don't do well long term. Watch Josh and see if he has the discipline, if he does not he will never be a long term consistent winner.
DeleteWhile 10% ROI was historically possible, nobody has a long-run 50% ROI! Now poker games have gotten more competitive, Josh failed to adapt, and his results will continue to deteriorate.
DeleteTalented pros are usually smart, disciplined, and accomplished at other things (school, jobs, athletics). They are naturally good at games, and won easily a few years ago. They creatively find and exploit opportunities. For example, they use software to datamine, scout games, and exploit opponents, including prohibited software (http://www.pokerstars.com/poker/room/prohibited/). They also use software to develop strategy. They play late at night when suckers are online. They use large monitors to play more tables. They try multiple sites, different games, and read many books. They have successful poker pro friends to share information and opportunities.
Josh is reactive and doesn't stay ahead of the curve. He literally expected a major poker site to sponsor him as an unknown, modestly winning low-limit player! He wasn't prepared for Full Tilt's demise. He lost $10K and blew money on vacation with no plan to repay! He didn't anticipate difficulties in achieving Supernova status. Even if you believe his bad-luck story, he expects to earn less than minimum wage going forward. He works only 30 hours per week, and has no plans to improve results. It sounds like he got inspired by the movie "Rounders" and thinks that surfing TwoPlusTwo makes him a pro. With these character traits, I would predict future losses even if he had a very profitable track record. But he is roughly breakeven over four years (remember the $10K loss)! He is a deluded hobbyist with no successful future in poker. You are deluded if you believe in him.
Zin, Andrea lacks expertise to evaluate Josh's poker skill. Besides, in what universe does a "pro" piddle around with $8 MTT's and $15 STT's?
DeleteAllow me to correct some of your statements:
Delete"he literally expected a major poker site to sponsor him as an unknown, modestly winning low-limit player" - he didn't literally expect anything, he hoped for it, and he was a stupid kid back then, he changed these past 5 years
"He wasn't prepared for Full Tilt's demise" - this is true, he didn't like PS and kept all his money on FT
"He lost $10K" - he never lost such money playing poker. In fact he NEVER finished a year losing money playing poker except when he first started playing for fun, like 8 years ago.
"He blew money on vacation" - yes, again when he was an idiotic kid, he does no such things now, for the past 4 years he's had his head working straight
and
"He didn't anticipate difficulties in achieving Supernova status." - this is true, he was expecting to win as he'd done so far
As I said in another comment, it all comes down to how much money he can earn playing poker, not on how well (or horribly) did he manage his winnings in the past.
Your description of a talented pro corresponds to what Josh is/does, except for two things: they are "accomplished at other jobs" and "use prohibited software" (in other words: cheat).
Josh is smart and disciplined (in the game), and accomplished at other things (school - he stopped studying because he was forced to and was always an average/good student; athletics). He is naturally good at games, and won easily a few years ago. He creatively finds and exploits opportunities. He uses legal software to datamine, scout games, and exploit opponents. He also uses software to develop strategy. He plays late at night when suckers are online. He uses two large monitors to play more tables. He tried multiple sites, different games, and read many books. He has poker playing friends to share information and opportunities.
I feel like I'm trying to convince YOU to date Josh, it's tiring. I told you already I cannot be conviced to leave him, don't know why you keep bringing out your crystal ball and predicting our future to be a living nightmare. It's pointless.
I really appreciate more constructive comments and suggestions, like Nappy's for instance, instead of the usual "you're damned to hell if you don't leave him" (whatever variation it may be), I know that already.
to quote brian "tournaments the place where bankrolls go to die" glad he finally cashed in something.ROI blah blah just show me the fucking money. here is an idea ,next time the rent is due give the landlord the stats as payment.
ReplyDeleteIt is very simple to tell how good of a poker pro he is.
ReplyDeleteAdd up the total profit from all the years of him playing poker full time and divide by the number of years he has been playing full time. This will give you his average profit per year playing poker.
Or if you know his total hours you can take his total profit and divide it by total hours played, then you can figure out his profit per hour.
Per Year Professional Poker Pro Rating Chart in U.S. Dollars:
Excellent - $100,000 or more per year
Very Good - $ 50,000 to $99,999 per year
Good - $ 25,000 to $49,999 per year
Ok - $ 10,000 to $24,999 per year
Poor - $ 1 to $10,000 per year
Fish - $ Loses money
So using the above chart what would be his Poker Pro Rating?
Thank you Nappy, I'll ask Josh what his average is, all I know is he made around 4500 this year, which he says was his worst year... I'll see what he has to show me for the other years.
DeleteThe point is really how good a player he is and how much money he can earn, not how he poorly managed his money when he was a stupid kid and didn't know better.
Nappy can you tell me the website where you got that chart from?
DeleteAnother question: those results are based in MTTs or SNGs? And at what stakes? Because... if someone plays like 5$ SNGs they'll never reach those results, even if they're excellent players.
DeleteJosh told me his average ROI over the past 5 years was about 12%. I believe that what makes sense is to evaluate the ROI, because that's a percentage of what was invested, and not round numbers like the ones in that chart. Do you agree?
Hmm Josh also told me that in SNGs it's tough to be above 20% ROI.
If someone plays $5 sngs for a living, they're choosing to flounder financially as opposed to finding alternate sources of personal financial support. That point is thus irrelevant.
DeleteA minimum wage job paying 10.25 an hour where I live for 40 hours a week a year would pay you $20,500. If you choose to make less than minimum wage by playing poker and only playing poker, then bask in the situation you've created yourself.
DeleteOur minimum wage pays 3 euros an hour, not 10. That point is thus irrelevant.
DeleteI apologize for the harshness. But you see, if I was weighing a good salary in a shitty job vs. a bad salary playing poker, your point would be correct.
DeleteBut the reality is I'm weighing a bad salary in a shitty job vs. a bad salary playing poker.
Not to mention the bad salary playing poker can improve, while our shitty minimum wage will surely be reduced soon. :\
Your rent is 90 euros a month, or 30 hours of minimum wage work. Rent here STARTS at $400 a month for a room in a shared apartment, or 39.02 hours of minimum wage work a month. It's all relative to spending power. Thus, YOUR argument is irrelevant. And Josh has to shoulder some blame and take some responsibility for being 30 years old and not employable for anything beyond minimum wage work. People can't MAKE you not want to be a loser your whole life.
DeleteMan, do you ever make a lot of excuses on his behalf. Remind us what the point of starting this blog was in the first place? To find another sad sack in the same situation as encouragement that you're in a normal healthy long term relationship in which all your life goals will be met?
Andrea first lent Josh $10000, then "lended him ... about 8 thousand dollars." His poker bankroll has around $2000 left. So he has spent around $16000 more than he earned over four years, an annual deficit of $4000.
ReplyDeleteAndrea pays most rent and expenses, cost of living is low. Andrea earns (and spends) around $1700 per month, or $20000 per year. Josh lacks expensive tastes and probably spends less. If Josh spends $12000 per year, then subtracting his annual deficit means only he earned around $8000 per year. That is better than the "unlucky" $4500 this year.
Let Josh show you how much he earned from poker each year. If it averages more than $8000, then let him explain where the money went. If it averages less, then tell us whether this is good enough for the future.
What? I never lended 10k to Josh.
DeleteAnd we're talking about 5 years (almost 6) together, not 4.
Thank you for your calculations though.
"We took a joint 10 thousand dollar loan, ... he had a really long bad run and lost almost everything."
DeleteJosh spends more than he earns ... because he doesn't earn much. If you lend money and support his lifestyle, then he owes you a clear accounting of historical hours, win-loss, volume, and ROI. How much do you think he will win in the future?
"Casais em um relacionamento não registrada que vivem juntos há mais de dois anos, são reconhecidos como tendo uma economia comum."
Hm yes you're right he doesn't earn much... but the thing is, since he's always changing strategies and evolving, I can't tell for sure that he won't be successful in the future.
DeleteI will not comment on your little Google Translator adventure :) because I don't want to say yes or no to understanting any language other than English.
The juiciness and profitability of online poker has shrank every year since black Friday. But his - 10k bad run and - 3k bad run are just really long stretches of bad luck and he's going to magically have everything click and start printing money? Yeah okay. You're smarter than that.
Deletesnafu
ReplyDelete"out of my database total of 41,000 ... [only] 422 were winners ... [who] had played more than 5,000 hands."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thehendonmob.com/alex_rousso/how_many_poker_player_are_losers
Congratulations, Josh wins more than 99%.
"bad salary playing poker can improve ... since he's always changing strategies and evolving, I can't tell for sure that he won't be successful in the future."
You believe after four years, losing Full Tilt, failing to get SuperNova, and having his worst year ever, a new idea like switching to $8 MTT's will save the day?
"He will never win big time at the tables and he will never keep his word regarding business or money."
"I'm weighing a bad salary in a shitty job vs. a bad salary playing poker."
You are weighing a bad salary in a selfish boyfriend vs. an average salary in a loving boyfriend.
Hmm yeah, now you've got me thinking.
Delete